One hundred years of attrition research (2017)_OCR

What it’s about

Drawing on nearly 100 years of combined research experience, four leading turnover scholars chronicle the evolution of employee turnover research across six historical epochs, from the earliest practitioner cost studies of the 1910s through the foundational March-Simon, Mobley, and Price models, the unfolding-model 'counter revolution,' and the 21st-century rise of job embeddedness, attitudinal trajectories, and collective turnover. The review explains the key constructs (job satisfaction, perceived alternatives, quit intentions, shocks, embeddedness, and proximal withdrawal states) and the methodological advances (the standard research design, survival analysis, SEM, qualitative model-testing, and panel/random-coefficient modeling) that propelled the field. It is an indispensable map for anyone who wants to understand both why employees voluntarily sever employment ties and how to manage retention with evidence-based strategies.

The through-line

Who it’s for

A turnover scholar, HR strategist, or applied psychologist who wants to understand why employees leave or stay and how to predict and manage attrition.

The problem

Employee turnover is costly (90–200% of annual salary), disrupts productivity, drains human and social capital, and undermines organizational performance. Researchers and managers feel overwhelmed by a sprawling, century-old literature and uncertain which theories, constructs, and methods are trustworthy and current.

The plan

1. Trace turnover scholarship chronologically across six clarifying epochs.
2. Master the foundational constructs—satisfaction, alternatives, quit intentions, shocks, embeddedness.
3. Adopt sound methodologies (standard research design, survival analysis, SEM, panel/trajectory models).
4. Distinguish leaving from staying and functional from dysfunctional turnover.
5. Apply context-rich, multilevel, and dynamic perspectives to predict and manage turnover.

The payoff

Researchers build cumulative, context-rich, dynamic theories that advance the field. · Managers identify who is leaving, why, and where they go, and intervene effectively. · Organizations retain high performers and central network actors and project performance impacts.

See our guide

• The Bicycle Guide to Study People And Organizations With Scientific Rigor →
• The Bicycle Guide to The Behavioral Science Underneath It All →
• The Bicycle Guide to Understand Human Behavior From The Foundational Canon →
• The Bicycle Guide to Build A People Analytics Function →
• The Bicycle Guide to Deal With Burnout, Stress And Turnover →
• The Bicycle Guide to Make A Decision Your Biases Won't Wreck →
• The Bicycle Guide to Change A Behaviour That Won't Budge →
• The Bicycle Guide to Influence People Without Manipulating Them →
• The Bicycle Guide to Motivate People Without Bribing Them →
• The Bicycle Guide to Design The Organization And Change It →
• The Bicycle Guide to Build A Team People Speak Up In →
• The Bicycle Guide to Do Research That Holds Up →
• The Bicycle Guide to Design Surveys People Answer Honestly →
• The Bicycle Guide to Understand What Drives Individual Performance →

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• The Bicycle Guide to Basics Qualitative Research Grounded Theory Corbin Strauss →
• The Bicycle Guide to Bayesian Multilevel Models for Repeated Measures dаta A Conceptual and Practical Introduction in R →
• The Bicycle Guide to Beyond Hr Boudreau Ramstad →
• The Bicycle Guide to Compensating Your Employees Fairly →

Additional reading

• Organizations · March, J. G., & Simon, H. A. (1958)

  This book provided the inaugural, foundational theory of voluntary turnover, introducing the central constructs of movement desirability (job satisfaction) and ease of movement (perceived job opportunities) that dominated turnover research for decades.

• The Study of Turnover · Price, J. L. (1977)

  This work, informed by a comprehensive review across disciplines, articulated a broad range of turnover determinants beyond job attitudes, including workplace, labor market, community, and occupational drivers, influencing subsequent comprehensive models.

• An alternative approach: The unfolding model of voluntary employee turnover · Lee, T. W., & Mitchell, T. R. (1994)

  This article introduced the 'unfolding model,' a radical departure from traditional theory that challenged core assumptions by introducing 'shocks' and multiple, distinct paths to turnover, reshaping modern understanding of the phenomenon.

• Why people stay: Using job embeddedness to predict voluntary turnover · Mitchell, T. R., Holtom, B. C., Lee, T. W., Sablynski, C. J., & Erez, M. (2001)

  This paper originated job embeddedness theory, shifting the focus from why people leave to why they stay. It introduced the key forces of links, fit, and sacrifice as crucial factors for retention.

Featured in these guides

• The Bicycle Guide to Understand Human Behavior From The Foundational Canon →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to The Behavioral Science Underneath It All →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Build A People Analytics Function →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Deal With Burnout, Stress And Turnover →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Make A Decision Your Biases Won't Wreck →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Change A Behaviour That Won't Budge →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Influence People Without Manipulating Them →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Motivate People Without Bribing Them →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Design The Organization And Change It →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Study People And Organizations With Scientific Rigor →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Build A Team People Speak Up In →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Do Research That Holds Up →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Design Surveys People Answer Honestly →Cited source
• The Bicycle Guide to Understand What Drives Individual Performance →Cited source